Honduras coup: ambivalent feelings

The creative graffiti in the streets of Tegucigalpa turns Mel Zelaya to Mel Ze Vaya (Mel Go Away)

Honduras' legitimately elected president, Manuel Zelaya, has been ousted in an alleged coup.
I say alleged because in spite of the international backing of Zelaya, so far I have seen no clear evidence that his removal from office was illegal -after all, the move to attempt re-election violated articles of the Constitution that forbid changes to the presidential limit of one four-year term and establish the legal procedure for constitutional amendments- however, the mode of his removal seems hardly a democratic measure and adds legitimacy to Mr. Zelaya's claims. In any case, declarations from OAS, UN, and the US, state their support for Zelaya and demand his return to power. Perhaps I should humbly assume they know exactly what they are doing and are acting out of their selfless devotion to Democracy. I'm not being sarcastic this time (really, I'm not).

Elected on a center-right platform, Mr. Zelaya decided he liked the left better half-way through his term. After he became friendly with Venezuela's Chavez, he embraced a Chavez-style leftisit/populist campaign to have a referendum to change the constitution so as to allow for a consecutive second term.

The Supreme Court, his own party and other government bodies declared such a referendum unconstitutional, and declared his lack of compliance to stop the referendum as an illegal act. Soon after the military flew him to Costa Rica in his pajamas. The Honduras Congress produced a dubious letter of resignation -which Zelaya says he never wrote- and appointed Roberto Micheletti as his replacement.

If you're like me, you must be thinking this is pretty strange. If congress voted him out of power, and Zelaya's actions were truly illegal, why the coup-like forceful exile?

Let me take a wild guess at the story behind the story...

1. Zelaya becomes friends with Chavez

2. Chavez starts courting Zelaya.

3. Zelaya makes a 180 degree ideology turn

4. The Honduran government and upper classes think: "this guy wants to stay in power forever by using populism to appeal to the impoverished masses, just like Chavez did... if it worked for Chavez, it can probably work for Zelaya -after all, the poor here don't read the news and have no idea that Chavez is ruining Venezuela and trying to become pseudo-king. We can vote him out of power, but with Chavez's funding, he can find a way to get reelected or stage a coup. This isn't good, we have to do something or it's bye-bye democracy (and bye-bye our elite privileges)"

5. Zelaya gets free one-way trip to Costa Rica.

6. Regional leaders don't want anyone getting bad ideas about overthrowing elected leaders, decide to show strong condemnation of coup.

7. The international community at large, fearing a return of civil war to the region, threatens sanctions and withdraws ambassadors, pressuring Honduras to undo the coup.

8. The US, complying with new foreign policy, repudiates coup publicly and pressures Honduras as well (though many breath easier in private. Same for many Latin American countries).

9. Chavez delights in being able to parade around region making noise and taking the high moral ground, feeling important and siding with his protege.

In this article of El Heraldo of Honduras, a Venezuelan citizen writes to congratulate the people of Honduras and thanks them for showing Venezuela that would-be dictators are not invincible and wishes they could do the same with Chavez. Many others ad comments to second the thought.

While I sympathize with the writer, it seems like Zelaya has plenty of popular support in Honduras. Given the mounting international pressure, it seems possible that a negotiated return to power of Zelaya may happen, in which he agrees not to attempt to run for a second term. This of course, would be ideal, but the question hanging in the air is: is it OK to risk a second Chavez in Honduras? While Venezuela had the oil boom and to counteract the devastating effects of Chavez in power, Honduras is already very poor to start with, and a Chavez style regime would likely bring utter ruin and even more corruption. Unfortunately, if the Honduran people chose to go that route, knowingly or not, they have every right to do so, and should not be opposed by force or unlawful actions -otherwise we are no better than the Zelaya of the world.

Article by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

Iran's ticking clock

The government continues to supress demonstrations, and blames the West on government television, even showing "confessions" of protesters supposedly incited by western media outlets. The Iranian bloggers make clear that no one is fooled by this, but since the Supreme Leader decided to show his hand and intervene in the elections, he doesn't have a choice but to play his role and go on with the act, leaning on his security forces. Although Khameini has succeeded in making the public demonstrations diminish significantly, the unrest persists in the minds of the people. It seems clear that this isn't simply going to go away. The clamp down on the media, scare tactics on the party leaders and reformists, violence on protesters, and monitoring of Internet comunications may have calmed things down to an extent on the surface, but underneath the tension hasn't gone away.

So far the government has been threatening to arrest Mousavi; if they do, a general strike may likely ensue, as Mousavi himself has exhorted the people as follow up to that eventuality. Or perhaps a massive demonstrations will be planned for the forty day anniversary of the killing of Neda Agha-Soltan. Perhaps the catalyst will be something else, but it is good to remeber that the last revolution didn't happen overnght -it took a year until the Shah was toppled -and it's been a short three weeks since June 12th.

ندا آقا سلطان

Neda Agha-Soltan

Rift in Iran's top clergy

Widening Rift in the Clergy

It appears that the rift among the the top religious authorities in Iran continues to gain momentum, with the Ayatollah Khameini having to lean more and more in his enforement agencies and less in the rule of law, while his moral authority seems to be spiraling down in all but the most conservative Iranians.

According to Reuters the most senior opposition ayatollah, Hossein Ali Montazeri, distanced himself further from Iran’s supreme leader, saying that “Resisting people’s demand is religiously prohibited … I am calling for three days of national mourning from Wednesday.” and described the election results as something that “no wise person in their right mind can believe.”

Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who leads the 86-member Assembly of Experts -a goverment body with legal authority to remove the Supreme Leader-, is supposed to be playing a quiet but critical role in organizing the opposition. His daughter Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani is a former member of Parliament who gained notoriety for opening sports to women and was seen at a rally for opposition candidate Mir Hussein Moussavi on June 17.

Mounting Evidence of Election Fraud

Read the analysis from Chatham House

Street Demonstrations Continue

Below is what is reported to be a demonstration in Shirazi street in Teheran from earlier today. It seems that demonstrations continue throughout Iran today, but with less violence than Yesterday in spite of the large number of police in the streets. Indeed, they are chanting "we are all together" -I wonder if we are beginning to see the turning of the enforcement agaencies -the only thing that seems to be keeping the government in place -to the reformist camp...



Here is a great blog from inside Iran, with great updates and photos

Marg Bar Dictator

With chants of "Allah-o-akbar!" ("God is great!") and ”Marg Bar dictator!” ("Death to the dictator!"), the people marched all over Iran today in defiance of Yesterday's threats of violence by the Ayatollah Khameini. Reports of massive use of tear gass, water cannons, and in some cases live bullets slowed slowed down the demonstrations, but did not manage to stop them completely.

It looks like the government of Iran has but two options: become a plain dictatorship in all but name, or veer towards freedom and reform.

Here is one of the many websites following the ongoing events

Videos, photographs, and blogspostes abound. The people are leaving no room for doubt about what they want, and their willingness to pay whatever cost is necessary:

>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBOBhguAjjY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0t54KKSVl-c

Don't miss these revealing facts about the election results here.

Meanwhile, demonstrations by Iraninan citizens and their supporters took place all over the world.

A Note to Tomorrow's Children

A blog post in Persian, translated by the NIAC

"I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed. I'm listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow! There are a few great movie scenes that I also have to see. I should drop by the library, too. It's worth to read the poems of Forough and Shamloo again. All family pictures have to be reviewed, too. I have to call my friends as well to say goodbye. All I have are two bookshelves which I told my family who should receive them. I'm two units away from getting my bachelors degree but who cares about that. My mind is very chaotic. I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so they know we were not just emotional and under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mongols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow's children..."

It is incredible to see what is in the hearts an minds of so many Iranians right now. It is touching, it is moving, it is amazing. History tells us of armies of long dead people who put themselves in harm's way for the sake of freedom, but that can never compare to the reality of seeing it happening, right this moment, by people like you or I, who go to school, or have a job, who for all that matters could be our next door neighbors -placing freedom above all else. Moments like this make me fall in love with the people of Earth.

The Ayatollah made clear where he stands -and has given a clear warning to the people and opposition leaders -but the protests will go on in a few hours. I hope the cost to the people is not too high.

Iran wants change

In 1979, the people of Iran raised up to overthrow a goverment they did not approve of. That revolution was supposed to put in place an islamic goverment, empowered by the people. But the recent and highly contested election results triggered a series of protests in which the people of Iran made clear that they did not feel empowered by their government. "It's not about Mousavi, or any candidate, it's about democracy" explained a young protester in the streets of Teheran. It seems to me, from the multiple accounts, interviews, tweets, blogs, and cell-phone videos from the streets, that the people weren't particularly upset with the system of government -at least at the beginning- they just wanted to have a say in how things are run, and they want to be able to express themselves freely -the problem is that this is a classic example of what happens when one branch of government has power over the others: the people's sovereignty soon starts to fade.

So now, with the whole world paying close attention, Iran finds itself at a fork in the road. The Supreme Leader must be thinking about what happened to the last Shah during the revolution, armed forces or not. Using force to repress the protests would discredit whatever credibility it has left before its own people and abroad, and it might backfire, triggering another revolution. He even has strong opposition within the clerical branches of government, supporting the protests. The safest way out seems to be to call for a re-election, and this time making sure it is legitimate. This of course, may weaken his position in the eyes of his opponents, and probably his own; though it seems to me that with the right moves, he could easily turn the situation to his advantage and gain popular support.

Khamenei said he would address the people tomorrow, and in the meantime, the people continue to flood the streets to make sure no one forgets what they want.

The world watches, and holds its breath.

>Al Jazeera article

>The Economist article

>Iran Timeline

Government of Iran:

Myers-Briggs Type Indicator

I find that knowing my own and other people's personality types can be helpful to understand behavior and motivation, and therefore help find the logic in apparently confusing or contradictory behavior. This tool can then help counteract the classical mistake of assuming that behavior in others is caused by the same motivations or understanding of the world as one's own.

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Your Type is INTJ

Strength of the preferences %

Introverted - 78
Intuitive - 75
Thinking - 38
Judging - 22

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